Following on from the work on the KS2 Sample Test results, I asked last week for people’s estimates (predictions?) for their outcomes on the new KS2 Writing Teacher Assessment framework in 2016.
The results have been … well, shall I say… erratic?
Data were shared by well over 300 schools, covering nearly 12,000 children, which is a fantastic result. In fact, there were initially more than that, but it turns out that teachers are not good at reading instructions. I had to delete some data that clearly made no sense (29 out of 17 children reaching expected standard?!) Then I had to correct some where people had clearly entered percentage values rather than pupil numbers.
Having looked at the outcomes, I still have my doubts. There are several schools who seem to be predicting sizeable increases in percentages working at the expected standard, and several who seem to be predicting exactly the same outcomes as in 2015. I just think schools are feeling in the dark. Thus, I confidently pronounce this data nonsense.
So, huge caveats aside, I looked at the data, I could pick out the following details:
- As a whole, the data set appeared to come from slightly higher-attaining schools than average. The data entered for 2015 results was higher than national figures at both levels 4 and 5 (88% vs 87% and 37% vs 36%)
- Over the whole set of data shared, the proportion of children working at the Expected Standard or above was 66% (compared to 88% achieving L4+ in 2014)
- Over the whole set of data shared, the proportion of children working at Greater Depth within the expected standard or above was 12% (compared to 37% achieving L5+ in 2014)
- The median percentage of pupils working at Expected or above was 68%
- There appears to be little correlation between how schools achieved in levels last year and their predictions for this year. (Excel says correlation value of 0.23)
The graph below shows the scatter plot of results, with the x-axis showing 2015 percentage values for Level 4+ attainment, and the y-axis showing estimates for 2016 outcomes at Expected Standard or higher. Make of it what you will!
It’s worth noting that of schools who achieved 100% Level 4+ in 2015, the predictions for 2016 range from 20% to over 90% at the expected standard. Also, of the six schools predicting/estimating 100% attainment at Expected+ for 2016, two have cohorts of fewer than 10 pupils.
If anybody else with a mathematical eye would like the full data set to explore, I’d be happy to share it – drop me a line via the About page above, or on twitter at @michaelt1979.
The summary of my analysis of KS2 sample test data is here.