Right, let me be clear up-front: I cannot predict your school’s progress scores. I can’t even pretend to estimate a prediction of it. There is just no way to find it, without knowing the full national picture of data – and even the DfE don’t have that finalised yet.
However, we do know how the progress measure works (see the video here if you don’t), so it would be possible to recreate the process based on a sample of data. It’s really little more than a thought experiment, but it may be of interest all the same.
To get even close to that, though, it will need lots of data, from lots of schools in lots of detail. Where in the past I have tried to collect summary data, for this experiment I would need real data from schools that includes both KS1 and KS2 results for their Year 6 cohorts. My plan, then, is to collate the data and find the average progress made by pupils with common starting points within the sample. I will then share the resulting progress calculations with schools who have submitted data.
Because this needs very specific and accurate data, it won’t be possible to collect this using an open spreadsheet. Instead, below is a master spreadsheet which can be downloaded by anybody who wants to take part. If you wish to join in, please download the form, add your own data, and then return it to firstname.lastname@example.org
Just don’t base your career decisions on the results 🙂
To take part, please download, complete and return the following spreadsheet: